E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Looking for Late Session Surge into 4158.25

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June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures extended their rally on Friday as signs of peaking inflation and consumer resiliency sent investors into the long holiday weekend with growing optimism that the Federal Reserve’s policy tightening can avoid tipping the economy into recession.

At 14:00 GMT, the June E-mini S&P 500 Index is trading 4146.00, up 90.25 or +2.23%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF is at $414.43, up $9.12 or +2.25%.

In addition to today’s strong performance, the benchmark index is poised to snap its longest weekly losing streak in decades. The S&P suffered seven consecutive weekly declines, the longest since the end of the dot.com bust.

All 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 were in positive territory amid light trading ahead of Monday’s Memorial Day holiday with real estate and tech enjoying the largest percentage gains.

In economic news, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric showed a 4.9% year-over-year rise in April. This result matched expectations and could be a sign that inflation is starting to decline.

Additionally, personal income rose 0.4% in April. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were looking for a 0.5% gain. Personal spending came in at 0.9%, better than the 0.7% forecast. The March figure was revised upward to 1.4%.

The Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report showed a disappointing 58.4, below the 59.1 estimate.

Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The next major upside target is the main top at 4303.00. A trade through 3807.50 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 3872.00 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum.

The short-term range is 4303.00 to 3807.50. The market is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 4113.75 to 4055.25, making it support.

The intermediate range is 4509.00 to 3807.50. Its retracement zone at 4158.25 to 4241.00 is the next potential upside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 4113.75 will determine the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Friday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4113.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum, we could see a test of 4158.25 to 4241.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4113.75 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum, then look for the selling to possibly extend into 4055.25.